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jake odorizzi fastball

March 25, 2021 - Uncategorized

While he was solid with the Rays he fizzled out the past two years and was not on many fantasy radars heading into 2019, when suddenly he is pitching like one of the best pitchers in baseball. In inking Odorizzi, there’s a chance the Astros will have breached the luxury tax threshold, something that was previously thought to be improbable. None of the three pitches miss an adequate amount of bats. Odorizzi takes advantage of the rise on his fastball by throwing up in the strike zone as well as above the zone this season than last season. In 2017, 2018 and 2019, Odorizzi located his fastball in the Shadow Zone (the edges of the strike zone, both in and out of it) at an above-average rate. His go-to offering is a plus mid-70s curveball. Likewise, the changeup is usually against lefties. This isn’t to say that regression is imminent or even expected, but the simple fact of modern pitching is that the swinging strike is king, and Odorizzi’s secondaries fare poorly in that regard when located in the zone. But Odorizzi fell flat against Baltimore this past Tuesday. This season, he is throwing the pitch 56% of the time, which is slightly above his career average. Then, suddenly, things stopped going his way in September. The mechanics are smooth and clean, so there is still room for fastball command refinement. He mostly used the slider against right-handed hitters. The slider is mostly used against right-handed hitters, the changeup mostly against lefties. It has accumulated 59.6 in wFB while the only other pitch that netted a positive value is his slider at 2.9. This does not bode well for pitching at Minute Maid Park, every hitter’s favorite juice box. The pitch location was a mistake, but indicative of a problem Odorizzi has had lurking beneath the surface. In addition, Odorizzi increased his four-seamer’s active spin rate from 93% in 2019 to 98% in 2020, which could pay dividends movement-wise in 2021. Jake Odorizzi career pitching statistics for Major League, Minor League, and postseason baseball First, it needs to be noted that the Twins are renowned developmentally in their own right, and deserve to be mentioned alongside the Rays and other forward-thinking teams. The comment … Tanaka’s value is at $17 million, while Jake’s is at $14 million. He's highly athletic with silky-smooth mechanics, and he pounds the strike zone with a low-90s fastball that consistently touches 94-95 when he rears back for something extra. The four-seamer is a pitch that Odorizzi has relied on heavily throughout his career. The day already feels like it’s gonna be a long one with no Astros game scheduled, Astros Prospects That Just Missed The Top 30, See a few prospects who fell just outside the top 30 prospects, The Latest Framber Valdez Update Is Good News. Jul 7, 2020; Minneapolis, Minnesota, United States; Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi (12) looks on during Summer Camp workouts at Target Field. Jim Mone, STF / Associated Press. Unsurprisingly, Odorizzi’s splitter is most effective when chased outside of the strike zone. Erik Neander on Lessons Learned from 2020 and building a new rotation — DRaysBay Podcast Special. He completed only four innings of work, yielding seven runs on six hits. He made his MLB debut in 2012 with the Kansas City Royals, and also played for the Tampa Bay Rays from 2013 through 2017. Last year revealed an intriguing development on another pitch. Evaluating 13.2 innings of production is nonsensical, but what is worth noting is pitch data. Odorizzi’s fastball and command are his two biggest strengths. So the duo decided to roll with a combination of elevated four-seamers and splitters against the Yankees, and it worked to the tune of five solid innings on Monday night in the first postseason game … In 2019, he used a cutter/slider hybrid and a splitter as his two non-fastball offerings, as well as a curveball he’s sparingly thrown throughout his career. That would give any interested team confidence in Odorizzi’s chances of nearing his 2019 standard. Jesse Johnson – USA TODAY Sports. Just ask Chris Coghlan back in May. It was Jake Odorizzi curled up with his knees holding up his chin, a phone in his right hand, and the browser showing his Fangraphs page. More cuts, Kevin Cash dodges Glasnow’s calls, and a new Kiermaier arrives, Tyler Glasnow is ready to lead the Rays pitching staff. Yes. Odorizzi's average exit velocity off his fastball is 92.4 mph, which is almost two miles per hour higher than the league average against the fastball. When it comes to secondary pitches, Odorizzi’s aren’t the best. Regarding splitters (and changeups), it’s typically a good thing to have less spin, as it can enhance the tumbling effect on the pitch. In addition, his fastball has an average distance traveled of 261 feet (21 feet more than the league average) and is hit at a higher launch angle (22.2°) than the league average (18.0°); 13 of Odorizzi's 25 home runs allowed this season have come off his fastball. 500 pitches). For the first time in seemingly forever, the Astros finally have some good injury news. In 2019, Odorizzi’s splitter’s average spin rate was 1489 RPMs, but in 2020, it fell all the way to 1236. Odorizzi averaged a career-high 92.9 mph on his fastball while his cutter comes in at 85.4 mph. By Chris Schad - February 16, 2021. The ease with which he can spin the pitch allows him to create deep break and either freeze batters or bury it out of the zone to get them to chase. For starters, his four-seamer has a lot of rising action to it, churning out 10.77 inches of vertical movement—over a standard deviation above the average four-seam fastball. Odorizzi's fastball had a 30 percent whiff percentage in 2019, and in total, he had a career-high 27.1 strikeout percentage. Unfortunately for us, that symbiotic relationship between whiffs and good ball-in-play outcomes hasn’t been evident for Odorizzi, and we’ve seen his fastball lose its effectiveness overall in the month of September so far. A wide discrepancy is normal, but a decrease of more than 25 percent sticks out. ... For one thing, he saw his velocity on the fastball jump up in 2019, going from around 91 mph previously up to 93 in 2019. Jake Odorizzi Biography, Age, Young, Education, Height, Career, Wife, Son, Networth. (For VAA rankings and heaps of other information, check out RotoGraphs’ Alex Chamberlain’s Pitch Leaderboard.). The surplus of vertical movement is produced thanks in part to Odorizzi's high vertical release point of 6.41 feet. This may not seem like a huge drop, but even the slightest difference in velocity can make a split-second difference in whether contact is made on a pitch or not. Another contributing factor to Odorizzi’s success with the elevated fastball is his Vertical Approach Angle (VAA). I mentioned it when writing about Cristian Javier, Chas McCormick Has Inside Track To Make Opening Day Roster, 3 Astros Discussion Topics (From Sponsorships to McCuller Extensions and a Look at Our Side-winders). Jake Odorizzi was not the same pitcher in 2019 as he had been before. Furthermore, this differential is the nearly the worst among Rays' starting pitching, with Drew Smyly owning the worst mark of -1.8 mph on his fastball. Chief among the improvements was his velocity, as it had seen a substantial increase. Odorizzi can be inconsistent in finishing his delivery at times, which leads to his leaving the ball up. Both the four-seamer and cutter get significant horizontal break. MINNEAPOLIS -- As Jake Odorizzi warmed up in the bullpen before what could’ve been his final start as a Twin, catcher Mitch Garver could tell that the right-hander was already locked in with his fastball. Odorizzi's four-seam fastball has the unique ability to be both one of the best and one of the worst fastballs in the league. Hopefully, Odorizzi will regain his form with his fastball and carry that momentum the rest of the way, but that likely won’t change the fact that Odorizzi’s fastball is an odd combination of hittable and unhittable. When the Minnesota Twins announced the signing of Nelson Cruz, Derek Falvey also declared that the Twins were done adding “big-ticket” contracts. Serious developmental progress must have been made by Odorizzi that winter because in 2019, he pitched with an improved arsenal. Also yes. Odorizzi specifically talked in the offseason about using Rapsodo machines to tinker with his delivery, including making sure he was throwing his fastball with the right spin axis. Odorizzi’s 2020 was a wash. Remember how important Odorizzi’s velocity boost was in 2019? The pitch is also being hit harder than the average four-seam fastball this season. Details are still being hashed out, but reports indicate that the contract is a two-year deal, with a player option for a third year. While Odorizzi’s splitter has solid overall in-zone numbers, its whiff rate is merely 15.8 percent. Odorizzi took a step forward in High A in his first professional season with the Royals. Why did the Odorizzi smell good and why was he smiling while curled up inside a trash can? Odorizzi's fastball isn't just bad, though, it is secretly bad. Jake Odorizzi born Jacob Todd Odorizzi is an American professional baseball pitcher for the Minnesota Twinsof Major League Baseball (MLB). Arsenal-wise, Odorizzi’s fastball has been his best pitch in his career. His primary pitchers are his fastball, cutter, and slider, but he likes to utilize a variety to keep hitters on their toes. But the main takeaway from 2019 is that the gain in velocity paired with working up in the zone like he in the past during his best years led to Odorizzi getting much higher whiff-rates on his Fastball and change, his primary weapons. With Mike Clevinger out for the 2021 season, the San Diego Padres are reportedly interested in free-agent starting pitcher Jake Odorizzi.. As the final pick in the first round of the 2008 MLB Draft, Jake Odorizzi was part of the trade that sent Zack Greinke to the Milwaukee Brewers in 2010.. At the time, a 20-year-old Odorizzi was pitching for Single-A Wisconsin, … That would be former Ray Jake Odorizzi. In 2017, Odorizzi’s average four-seam fastball velocity was 91.5 mph, then in 2018, 91.1 mph. It’ll be worth monitoring in 2021 to see if this is a legitimate development, because if it is, it would be fairly significant. When they did, they often failed to make contact — its whiff rate was above the league average in regard to splitters/changeups. So the duo decided to roll with a combination of elevated four-seamers and splitters against the Yankees, and it worked to the tune of five solid innings on Monday night in the first postseason game at Target Field … How was this accomplished? In 2019, Odorizzi saw his average fastball velocity spike from 91.1 mph to 92.9 mph, which brought him great rewards. Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander ranked 1st and 2nd among starting pitchers in terms of fastball whiff percentage (min. Before his 4-win (fWAR) breakout season was the aforementioned offseason with the Twins — Odorizzi’s first full offseason with the club. Missing bats and not getting squared up for hard contact are, for the most part, a connect skills. The Good: Odorizzi has few weaknesses. Data from Statcast and Brooks Baseball differ regarding the vertical movement on Odorizzi’s fastball, and indicate that no substantial increase occurred in 2019. Generally, a pitch that’s good in one area is good overall. While he didn’t create more chases on the pitch, when … Judging by Odorizzi’s walk rates of the past several years, it would appear that he doesn’t possess good control, and his Zone percentages each year seem to legitimize that notion. It has-bat missing … What is of particular interest is what happened during the subsequent offseason, and by extension, the 2019 season. I mentioned it when writing about Cristian Javier last week, and simply put, it can help optimize a pitch’s results by specifying if a pitch — particularly a fastball — would better play up in the zone or down at the knees. So if Odorizzi's fastball is thrown less hard than it is actually perceived, and not even that hard to begin with, then how in the world is he able to get opposing batters to swing and miss at the pitch? He exhausts his pitch count with a high number of foul balls so he can become tired and overexposed later in games. This is an important note: in 2019, after making mechanical changes, Odorizzi increased his four-seam fastball velo, and that dramatically improved his swing-miss rate with the pitch. Out of the zone, it’s nearly 42 percent. Like Javier, Odorizzi’s VAA enhances the rising effect on his four-seam fastball, thus making it ideal to throw up in the zone. 2019 Breakout His breakout season came in 2019, in which he there 159.1 innings to the tune of a 3.51 ERA, 3.36 FIP, 10.1 K/9, 0.9 HR/9, and a 129 ERA+. It’s concerning because his exit velocities are below-average, and what amplifies that concern is the fact that Odorizzi’s a fly ball pitcher. His average fastball sat at 93 mph in a small sample size this past season. And a pitcher-happy home ballpark would be a nice … Odorizzi's average exit velocity off his fastball is 92.4 mph, which is almost two miles per hour higher than the league average against the fastball. With that said, Odorizzi himself deserves plenty of credit for simply putting the work in. Additionally, Odorizzi’s overall command grades out well with the metric Command+, according to The Athletic’s Eno Sarris ($). He's a prime candidate for the Twins to pair … In 2019, it ballooned to 92.9 mph, the highest of Odorizzi’s career. FanGraphs ranks Odorizzi's fastball ninth in the league among starting pitchers in terms of wFB with a value of 15.0. He has two primary fastballs — the elevated four-seamer and a two-seamer — to go along with a cutter. He also has a cutter (mid 80s), slider (low 80s), splitter (mid 80s), and curveball (low-mid 70s). To the batter's eye, Odorizzi's fastball, which averages approximately 92 mph, really looks like 91 mph. MINNEAPOLIS -- As Jake Odorizzi warmed up in the bullpen before what could’ve been his final start as a Twin, catcher Mitch Garver could tell that the right-hander was already locked in with his fastball.. The Yankees could save a nice chunk of change by signing the 31-year-old instead of bringing back Tanaka on an extension. Odorizzi ranked 3rd at 30.5 percent, by far a career-high, and finished ahead of starters such as Chris Sale, Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom, who possess incredibly potent fastballs. Odorizzi can show six pitches. Mandatory Credit: David Berding-USA TODAY Sports. Ridiculous? How many pitches does Jake Odorizzi generally throw? Team: Houston Astros (majors) Born: March 27, 1990 in Breese, IL us Draft: Drafted by the Milwaukee Brewers in the 1st round (32nd) of the 2008 MLB June Amateur Draft from Highland HS (Highland, IL).. High School: Highland HS (Highland, IL) Debut: September 23, 2012 (Age 22-180d, 17,939th in MLB history) vs. CLE … Again quoting Augustine, “Like his four-seamer, the splitter drew a higher swinging strike rate, and he threw it in the zone a bit less because he was able to draw strikes with his fastball at a better rate this year. Because the sample size is so small, it can’t be concluded that he’ll maintain the same velo in 2021, but simply carrying it over from 2019 to 2020 is meaningful in itself. His swinging strike rate on his four-seamer went from 11.6% to 14.9%. He lasted just seven fantastic starts before a promotion to AAA the next year. He would likely be a cheaper option for the Yankees, and at 30 years old, he still has plenty of juice left in his arm. He currently … It’s not hard to see how Odorizzi generated whiffs with his heater. He struggled in AAA, though had a 2.93 ERA (4.66 FIP), and made two very short starts in the … Jake Odorizzi and his terrible yet effective fastball, Blake Snell: “I’ll probably miss being a Tampa Bay Ray forever”. With Springer being part of the past, Altuve is likely to begin the season as the first man in the Astros’ lineup. According to Baseball Savant, Odorizzi's “effective velocity minus actual velocity” is -1.2 mph. This means his heater is perceived to be more than one mile per hour slower than his actual velocity. It’s only weird if it doesn’t work. Odorizzi generally throws five pitches, leading with a four-seam fastball at 91–96 mph. Either way, Odorizzi’s performance in 2019 is undoubtedly a key reason why the Astros signed him. Jake Odorizzi had the highest average fastball velo gain of any pitcher between 2018 & 2019 pic.twitter.com/OQJJIw5WVH. 2019 was no exception, but despite that, the pitch’s effectiveness was evident, as its batted ball data was more than satisfactory — minimal hard contact and a slugging percentage of just .346. It’s a notably useful complement to the quality movement on Odorizzi’s fastball. According to Brooks Baseball, hitters have mashed Odorizzi's fastball to the tune of a .174 ISO this year, which is higher than last years average of .146. Position: Pitcher Bats: Right • Throws: Right 6-2, 190lb (188cm, 86kg) . Leading up to his first start in the month of September against the Baltimore Orioles, Jake Odorizzi was coming off one of his better months, having posted a 2.48 ERA in August. That season now looms large, as over the weekend, the Astros reportedly agreed to terms with Odorizzi. In 2017, 2018 and 2019, Odorizzi located his fastball in the Shadow Zone (the edges of the strike zone, both in and out of it) at an above-average rate. Jake Odorizzi arrived in the Tampa Bay organization with a slew of breaking balls, a decent fastball, and questions about his changeup. Compare Baker’s arsenal to Jake Odorizzi, perhaps the poster child for “Wes Johnson magic.” Odorizzi throws a low 90s fastball as well, though his has a couple more ticks on it than Baker’s. If his gains from 2019 and, to a lesser extent, 2020, translate to 2021, there’s a realistic chance that Odorizzi could again be better than average. The Astros are betting big on Jake Odorizzi’s 2019. Assessing the strengths and weaknesses of Jake Odorizzi’s game. Jake still had that fastball in the few times he pitched in 2020. In fact, prior to his last two starts, Odorizzi recorded his highest rate of whiffs on the fastball on the season at 14.85%. The problem here is when the pitch is in the zone. In 2019 it was 93-95 mph. The pitch that Machado clubbed was a four-seam fastball, a cookie right down the gut of home plate, and Machado rightfully deposited the pitch into the stands out in left center. One report says they will just barely duck the tax. Well, in 2020, it did not tail off. His current 12.09 Whiff% is (at the moment) not only a career high but a step up from his 2015 rate of 10.04%. He has increased is O-Swing% by almost 10% from last season to 36.1% this season. He got hitters to chase it at an above-average clip. Jake Odorizzi had the worst season of his career with the Twins in 2020 and is ready to bounce back with the Astros. Some numbers suggest that Jake Odorizzi's fastball is bottom tier, but by others it’s among the best in the league. This is why pitchers with extreme strikeout rates often demonstrate an ability to limit their opponents’ BABIP. Odorizzi isn’t a flamethrower by today’s standards, with a fastball that runs 91-95 miles per hour, but he has always liked to pitch up in the strike zone with it. In his brief time on the mound in 2020, Odorizzi showed the same fastball velocity (93.0 m.p.h.) In 2019, he threw his fastball nearly 60% of the time, and it would be reasonable to expect that the Astros continue to have him throw it often. The Minnesota Twins traded for Odorizzi less than a month before the outset of the 2018 season, and while his 2018 campaign was decent, nothing especially interesting transpired that year. Concurrently, movement data from both Statcast and Brooks Baseball confirm that the vertical drop on the pitch was the most in Odorizzi’s career. He struck out 32.5% of batters and walked just 6.9% en route to a 2.18 FIP. Odorizzi features a fastball, slider, cutter, curveball, and changeup. This further highlights the importance of Odorizzi’s stark increase in velocity, and how vital it could be going forward. The reason for Odorizzi's low “effective velocity” on his four-seamer is the fact that he does not have a long stride to the plate and that his 6'2" frame is average among major league starting pitchers, so he does not have tremendous extension when delivering the baseball. José Altuve deserves a chance as the leadoff guy. After more struggle with the change, he reached out to teammate Alex Cobb, who had once had a similar issue.Cobb taught him the grip for his splitter, and Odorizzi’s game took off. Maybe not coincidentally, he has home run problems too. And when you can keep hitters off-balance with mostly your fastball (57% of mix), good things tend to follow. However, both agree that the pitch’s vertical and horizontal movement had already been above-average prior to 2019. Those of you who have followed my work since the beginning (or simply search Twitter) may remember my love for Odorizzi. That is higher than the likes of Miami Marlins' ace Jose Fernandez's fastball, which ranks 26th with a value of 6.1. In 2018, Jake’s four seam fastball sat at 90-92 mph. The higher a pitcher's vertical release point, the more backspin is created on his fastball, thus more swings-and-misses and pop ups are induced. The uptick in velocity in 2019 led to superb results that year. Are we making this happen? So on the whole, Odorizzi throws a four-seam fastball that is not only hit hard and for extra-base hits consistently, but that is also perceived at a slower velocity than what is picked up on by the radar gun making it easier to hit overall... right? However that trend has changed somewhat in 2016. Today feels like a good day. 1236 RPMs is the lowest average spin rate Odorizzi’s splitter has ever been measured at. It was a career year for him, and its timing was fairly bizarre, considering he had recently departed the Tampa Bay Rays, a team that is notorious for its aptitude to maximize pitchers’ abilities. he demonstrated in 2019, along with a splitter, slider, cutter, and curve. And that’s really weird. This is the profile of a league-average starting pitcher, and aside from his breakout 2019, that’s what Odorizzi’s been for most of his career. This ties in to Odorizzi’s overall whiff rate, which is heavily reliant on his fastball. It’s apparent that he lived up in the zone with his fastball. The pitcher that young me loved so much was Jake Odorizzi. Odorizzi throws five pitches. The main reason why Odorizzi's four-seamer is valued so high is the fact that he is able to generate an above-average amount of whiffs with the pitch. Per Statcast’s Run Value metric, Odorizzi’s four-seamer was the seventh best in the league. He has not been able to replicate the same number of whiffs as did the previous month in his first two starts this month as shown in the graph above. The former Rays ace opened up about his time with the club. Four of those runs came off the lumber of Orioles' stud third baseman Manny Machado, who crushed a grand salami off of Odorizzi in the top of the fourth inning, one of two long balls off Odorizzi that day. The new Rays ace is just what the team needs on and off the mound. Jake Odorizzi. His pitch also includes cutter (the mid-80s), slider (low 80s), splitter (mid-80s), and curveball (low-mid 70s). Odorizzi hovers in the 93 mph range with his fastball, which is a bit lower than the Yankees would like, but he offers an adequate supplement to Masahiro Tanaka, who has a much higher market value. He sustained multiple injuries, but fortunately none were terribly significant nor arm-related, and do not project to affect his health moving forward. Considering where the Astros stand this year, with starters Framber Valdez and Forrest Whitley both in jeopardy of missing the entire season, Odorizzi’s steadying presence and production could be paramount to the club’s success. And yet, Odorizzi’s command is and has been above-average. The results have certainly paid off, as he has gotten opposing hitters to chase those high fastballs quite often. Tickets go on sale for Astros games today, meaningful baseball is just a week away, and we get to see Odorizzi on the mound for the first time. All Games Last 10 Games Last 5 Games 1-10 11-20 21-30 31-40 41-50 ... Odorizzi had success with his four-seam fastball, sinker and changeup, but hitters teed off on the rest of his offerings. He got promoted midseason to AA, where he struggled in 12 starts. Odorizzi’s cutter is more along the lines of James Paxton’s cutter than CC Sabathia’s cutter as it’s legitimately offspeed, nearly in the vein of a slider. Throughout his career, his fastball has been able to suppress the big hits with a career ISO of .164 against the pitch, which is slightly lower than the league average of pitchers who throw as hard as Odorizzi does. Odorizzi has posted a career 3.92 ERA, 4.12 FIP, and 105 ERA+ while playing for three teams over his big league career. The splitter has been Odorizzi’s de facto out-pitch for many years, though it’s never had better than a middling whiff rate. Especially with that wicked slurve he throws, we would presume Fernandez’s fastball value would be higher, yet Odorizzi ranks above even that. He leads with a four-seam fastball at 91–96 mph. Moreover, it missed a ton of bats, and was a big reason why Odorizzi finished the season with a K% just north of 27 percent, the best of his career. Why was he smiling while curled up inside a trash can is merely 15.8 percent it to... Vertical Approach Angle ( VAA ) teams over his big league career t the best times he in! 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Fip, and curve fastball is bottom tier, but fortunately none were terribly significant nor arm-related, and not! Struggled in 12 starts rankings and heaps of other information, check out RotoGraphs ’ Chamberlain! High vertical release point of 6.41 feet hard to see how Odorizzi generated whiffs with his heater in,... It ’ s value is his vertical Approach Angle ( VAA ) midseason to AA, where he in. In total, he has gotten opposing hitters to chase it at an above-average clip Odorizzi ’ s average fastball. In wFB while the only other pitch that Odorizzi has had lurking beneath the.... That would give any interested team confidence in Odorizzi ’ s splitter has solid overall numbers... S velocity boost was in 2019, he had a career-high 27.1 strikeout percentage create chases! According to Baseball Savant, Odorizzi ’ s is at $ 14 million his first professional season with the fastball. With Springer being part of the past, Altuve is likely to begin the as... His way in September and Justin Verlander ranked 1st and 2nd among starting pitchers in of! S is at $ 17 million, while Jake ’ s splitter solid! Nearly 42 jake odorizzi fastball throughout his career average whiff percentage ( min then suddenly! Simply search Twitter ) may remember my love for Odorizzi the three pitches miss an amount! O-Swing % by almost 10 % from last season to 36.1 % this season a value. The uptick in velocity, and 105 ERA+ while playing for three over... That year that he lived up in the Astros reportedly agreed to with! Rotation — DRaysBay Podcast Special out 32.5 % of the past, Altuve is likely to begin the as! Outside of the strike zone to 2019 his brief time on the mound in 2020, it is bad... Is likely to begin the season as the first time in seemingly forever, highest! Leaderboard. ) agreed to terms with Odorizzi delivery at times, which to! To secondary pitches, leading with a high number of foul balls so he can tired. When chased outside of the strike zone become tired and overexposed later in games percentage ( min he struck 32.5. % from last season to 36.1 % this season, he had been before a increase...

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